Liners, ship and port owners are having a great party since mid-2021. Seems that the party shall continue in 2H22. Below are the drivers that make me think that way:
* Key indicators for ocean freight, namely the #freight rate index and the annual TEU throughput increased to record highs.
* Seasonal patterns and COVID lockdowns led to less trade volumes and a recent softening of the index.
* #Maersk expects more than 70% of long-term contracts in 2022 out of all contracts, recently announced that could go up until almost 80%, an indication of significance for the guidance on world trade. This company earned $9Bn in the first quarter of 2022!
* Once China reopens following the lockdown (end of June or mid-July) huge amount of volumes will then have to be shipped out of China which are currently creating a backlog. That will not only increase the freights but push current congestion in Chinese ports to the west coast ports of the US and that shall possible take 4-6 months to normalise…
* The contracted #TCE is actually increasing, vessels that we have been able to fix for longer periods are the ones that have also already higher #charter #rates.